Inflation. At time of writing the year over year figure is reported to be 8.3%.  While (hopefully) not an unfamiliar concept to those planning for retirement, these days the word is on everybody’s tongue. Even for those who make the effort to avoid news, the county’s inflation issue announces itself everywhere in the form of rising prices. Only the most price-oblivious of shoppers could fail to notice, and even they may be induced to do a double take when they see their favorite products seemingly shrinking on the shelves. I’m not an economic expert so while I’ll spare you my hot take on the current situation, I will share an important historical observation. Inflation is nothing new. Inflation is a natural, and in fact inescapable, part of a monetary system. So, give the Fed (or is it Putin?) a break and cast your blame upon the Lydians, the ancient Anatolian people, who, in the 7^th century BCE, became minters of the first known coinage.

“Mom, I’m thinking of buying GameStop stock—what do you think?” asked my 28-year-old novice-investor son, Peter, on a recent January morning. “I’ve been reading about it on Reddit, DFV and I think there is an opportunity there.”

My boys have always loved GameStop. I remember taking them at midnight for game releases when they were tweens. But that was then, and this is now: “GameStop?!” I replied. “No way, that’s like buying Blockbuster and we all know how that ended.” After all, does anyone go into a physical store to buy video games anymore?

“I’m not comfortable even eating outdoors at restaurants,” said my husband, Peter, right after returning from a Home Depot Trip. As we have all noticed, everyone has a different Covid risk tolerance, and it’s frequently inconsistent. It’s much the same with risk tolerance when considering investments and asset allocation. In both, personal comfort isn’t all that matters and often an expert opinion, as well as historical research, can save someone from themselves.

“Ann, you’d be so proud of me!” exclaimed Fred. “I haven’t done a thing with my investments—absolutely nothing!” In fact, I was impressed. Fred is a client with a history of losing his nerve during market declines and making poor emotionally-driven investment decisions. Over the past 10 weeks, Covid-19 has made it impossible for anyone, regardless of their risk tolerance, to hold on tight and not question the markets. The fact that Fred internalized my advice and was not panic selling was remarkable.

“Well, that’s fitting as everything is always 50% off at Sears” dead-panned my husband when I told him that I sold my Sears bond for half of its face value.

I had been holding an unsecured note for three years, long before Sears filed for bankruptcy.  Unbeknownst to me, my bond had moved into default status and so I decided to sell it straight away rather than wait to see how much I would eventually get for it. Estimates ranged from 30-60 cents for each dollar of face-value, so I feel lucky to have received 50% without waiting.

“Does 1% really make any difference?” John asked. We were discussing John’s cash and emergency savings.

The financial experts know a lot more about the markets and how the markets will perform in the future than the ordinary rest of us.  Right?

Imagine a person who always, in every circumstance, makes rational decisions with his money.  He saves when he ought to and spends exactly as he should spend, in order to maximize the “utility” of whatever wealth he happens to possess.  He defers gratification with ease.  When he invests, he has instant and total access to all possible information related to every item in his, including the details of every company’s financials and any impactful world events, even if they haven’t reached the news media yet.  If he found a $100 bill on the sidewalk, he would immediately go out and invest it in a steel mill.

You can be forgiven if you’re skeptical that Congress will be able to completely overhaul our tax system after failing to overhaul our health care system, but professional advisors are studying the newly-released nine-page proposal closely nonetheless.  We only have the bare outlines of what the initial plan might look like before it goes through the Congressional sausage grinder: